Interpret Results in Signal

Signal measures and evaluates the association between a correlation event and a goal event and quantifies the correlation between the two. The following article describes how to interpret the results of a report in Signal.

View this article to learn how to build a query in Signal. 

Summary View

Each correlation will be represented by one card in the summary view results. The list-view will display the optimal action, correlation with the goal event, and key findings about the event. Results can be sorted by correlation strength or by Mixpanel opportunity score.

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Opportunity Score

By default, the results will be sorted by “Opportunity.” “Opportunity” is Mixpanel’s proprietary calculation of how important a given correlation might be. Reference this article for more detail on how "Opportunity" is calculated. 

Correlation Strength

The correlation strength is calculated using the phi coefficient. To summarize, the correlation strength is how closely related two events are. Refer to this article to see how Mixpanel calculates phi.

Detailed view

To access the detailed view, click on a card in the summary view.

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The detailed view provides the correlation calculations for each Event evaluated. This view uses a heat map to show the strength of the correlation with the goal event for every frequency and velocity combination of the event selected.

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The x-axis represents the velocity, or the number of days it took users to complete the event (up to 15 days) and the y-axis shows the frequency of the event, or the number of times the event was done, up to ten times.

The Optimal combination will be highlighted in green. This data will be used to calculate Mixpanel’s assessment of the particular Event and threshold combination.

For each combination Mixpanel will provide supporting statistics for further analysis:

  • Precision: Percent of users who convert to your goal among those who did this event at least x times within y days

  • False omission rate: Percent of users who convert to your goal among those who did this event fewer than x times within y days

  • Recall: Percent of converted users who did this event at least x times within y days

  • Fall-out: Percent of unconverted users who did this event at least x times within y days

  • Correlation: Association between performing this event at least x times in y days and converting to your goal.

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To see the calculations of the optimal correlation data, hover of the ƒx in the upper right-hand corner of the chart at the bottom of the heat map.

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